Joe Zagrodnik- Predicting weather in WA State

Predicting weather in Washington State: recent advances and opportunities
Joe Zagrodnik

Date: Monday, February 24^{th   |}   Place: Paccar 202   |   Time: 4:10-5pm

As weather systems pass from the Pacific Ocean to Washington State, their temperature, moisture, and flow structures are modified by topography. The resulting variability in weather conditions on a variety of spatial scales is difficult to capture with standard gridded meteorological models and forecast output products. It also presents an opportunity for atmospheric scientists to study the physical processes behind the complex weather in Washington State and use new insights to improve weather models and forecasts for a variety of applications including agriculture. This presentation details results from several observational and modeling efforts to further understand these topics. Results are presented from the 2015-16 Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX), a NASA-sponsored observational field campaign that unveiled new insights into the processes responsible for the enhancement of precipitation on the windward side of midlatitude coastal mountain ranges and the corresponding rain shadows on the lee side. The use of the high-resolution UW-WRF model to capture small-scale weather extremes is demonstrated with the case of a highly-localized wind event that destroyed a swath of old growth trees in January 2018. Finally, the combination of physical weather models and machine learning post-processing is shown to be the most viable path to improving site-specific weather forecasts, especially in irrigated agricultural regions.

This is a CEE Seminar Event that counts towards the WRSM Lecture requirment.